We have to recognize that our world is shaped by such factors as gravity, entropy, the speed of light, the first and second laws of Thermodynamics. They are forces of nature and impose limitations on the ways that we can live. Another is the biosphere. The sole of Air, Water and Land that is the source of all we need to survive and flourish. So protect it's health has to be our highest priority.
Other tings like capitalism, free enterprise, economy, currency, the market, these are not forces of nature. We invented them! If they are not working, then we have got to change them. Yet we act if they are somehow immutable, and we have to bound down and do everything to service them.
You know it's really weird, that a few centuries ago, people believed in dragons, daemons and monsters. We really believed in! And if we thought they were pissed off at us, man we would do everything, give them jewels, gold, sacrifice virgins, we would do everything to appease those things. Well, today we know they are not real, they were figures of our imagination. And what do we do? We go and replaced them with another figure of our imagination, called the Economy. And we bound before them the way we did to dragons and daemons.
Our hope, the biosphere, it's finite and fixed. It can't grow. And if the Economy is a part of and dependent of the Biosphere, the attempt of maintain endless growth, is an impossibility. Let me show you why.
Steady growth over time, whether it's the amount of garbage you make, the size of your city, the population of the world, anything that's grows steadily is called Exponential Growth. And anything growing exponentially has a predictable doubling time. I am going to give you a System Analyses of the planet. It's a test tube, full of food for bacteria. So the test tube and food is the planet, and the bacteria are us. I'm going to add one bacterial cell to the test tube, and to will begin to divide every minute. That's Exponential Growth. So at the beginning there is one cell. One minute there are two. Two minutes there are four. Three minutes there are eight. And at sixty minutes the test tube is completely packed with bacteria and there is no food left. So we have a 60min Growth cycle. hen is the tube half full? And of course the answer is at 59min. At 59min, it's half full, but one minute later is completely full. So at 58min, it's 25% full. At 57min it's 12,5% full. At 55min of the cycle, it's 3% full.
So let's suppose, that at 55min, one of the bacterias goes «Hey guys! I have been thinking. We have got a population problem!», and them other bacteria would say «Jack! What the heck have you been smoking?! 97% of the tube is empty and we have been around for 55min!». They are 5min away of filling. So bacteria are no smarter than people. At 59min they would go «Oh my God! Jack is right, we have got on minute left. What are we going to do now? Better we give that money to those scientists, they could pull us out of this!». But the world for the bacterias is the test tube and food. How can they possibly add more food and space to that world? They can't. They can no more add food or space as we can add Air, Water, Soil or Biodiversity to the Biosphere.
This is not speculation or hypothesis. It is straight mathematical certainty. And every scientist I have talked to, agrees with me «We have already past the 59th minute».
So all the demands for relentless growth is a call to accelerate down what is a suicidal path. And by focusing on "Growth! Growth!", we failed to ask the important questions, like «How much is enough?» «Are there no limits?», «Are we happier with all this stuff?», «What is economy for?».
We never ask those questions...
in The Legacy lecture, Vancouver, Canada -- December 2009.
